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PREDICTIONS FOR 2006 IN PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
OCT 27, 2005 - 1:50PM PST
by Alvin Snyder

It is relatively clear to me where U.S. public diplomacy is headed in 2006. And so there’s really no reason to wait until late December, or New Year’s day, to make predictions about the coming new year. Therefore, I will submit my predictions now, and take my chances. One. Al-Jazeera, the renegade Arabic satellite channel, will continue to drive the agenda of U.S. public diplomacy. It plays the offense, the U.S. the defense. But the defense will begin to score some points after January 1. Both will be looking back over their shoulders as the BBC shapes up its Arabic language TV channel, scheduled for launch in 2007. Two: Al-Jazeera will, in fact, be in the White House's face more than ever next year. This prediction is a sure thing, because the channel is already in the face of the White House, literally. Its new English language service has moved into its Washington, DC, studios on 16th Street, just a few blocks from the White House. Employees of each will see one another at the same restaurants at lunch time, where al-Jazeera will no doubt be on TV monitors, with its English language reports from up the street and from other anchor locations in London, Doha, and Kuala Lumpur, starting this spring. The U.S. government’s channel, Alhurra, is not carried in English, only in Arabic, and is not available in the U.S. Go figure. Three: The Bush administration will scramble to find talking heads – the kind one sees on U.S. cable news channels and Sunday morning interview shows. That’s because the producers of al-Jazeera’s English language satellite channel will have lots of time to fill, 24/7, and will be looking for talking heads to fill that time, especially from Washington. The White House and the State Department’s public diplomacy chief, Karen Hughes, ought to start thinking about this soon, to provide ample time for media training of the most articulate and attractive spokespersons. Four: The U.S. will react to al-Jazeera’s new thrust into the U.S. - if it stays on schedule - by moving to repeal the Smith-Mundt Act. Since the end of World War II, Smith-Mundt has banned the domestic dissemination of U.S. government non-military international broadcasts. It was enacted when memories of Nazi propaganda foisted on the German people were still fresh. With al-Jazeera English seen in America, Congress will conclude that Smith-Mundt is out-of-date. Its repeal would free up Alhurra and other U.S. government programs to be seen in America. Five: America’s public diplomacy will become less of a mess - as some characterize it - if Karen Hughes stays put throughout 2006 as the State Department’s communications czarina. Although she is but one of nine members of the Broadcasting Board of Governors who oversee the American government’s international broadcast services, she will use her clout as confidant of President Bush to make public diplomacy more proactive. Her boss, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, has said that more will be expected of the U.S. government’s international…... FULL TEXT
 
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