Pakistan needs help to change from within

Confusion reigns about a solution for Pakistan's internal problems. International opinion oscillates between the need to apply more pressure on the country, or else to help it more generously. Yet increased aggression or abandoning the country to deal with its difficulties are not very sensible options, as both could unleash severe destabilisation within Pakistan and beyond.

What Pakistan instead needs is much more international support. Overall, the country as a whole has paid a severe cost since its leaders decided to join the "war on terror". Officials estimate that the national economy has suffered nearly $US35 billion dollars in losses in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Pakistan's involvement in the ongoing conflict against militancy has resulted in the loss of thousands of lives, massive internal displacements due to military operations against militants, and a general erosion of security, translating into lacklustre growth and increasing poverty.

In the bid to secure more help for the country, a high profile donor conference in Tokyo last year pledged $US5 billion. But publicised statements about aid pledged to Pakistan can be misleading since much of this aid does not then materialise. For instance, Pakistan's Economic Affairs Division last month reported that only $900 million of the funds pledged in Tokyo had actually reached the country.

Even the World Bank has urged donor countries to fulfill their commitments to Pakistan as the country is struggling with trying to balance its fiscal deficit.

While aid inflows have increased since the country was hit by unprecedented floods, the needs are now much greater as well, given the massive devastation caused by the severest of three major natural disasters that have hit Pakistan over the past five years.

The international community is concerned that the latest floods have hit Swat valley as well, where the Taliban had made major inroads until a Pakistani army offensive last year. The US is particularly anxious that the Taliban do not return to Swat, or extend their influence to other parts of the country. But with civilian authorities overwhelmed, militant influence could grow in the aftermath of the floods disaster.

PAKISTAN FLOODS: HOW TO HELP

Militants and hard-line charity groups have also been quick to urge a boycott of Western aid, and initiate their own relief efforts. They are also reiterating that natural disasters are God's punishment to Pakistanis for their complicity with the Western powers.

Unfortunately, the problems plaguing Pakistan extend beyond immediate disaster relief and rehabilitation needs. Crippled by mismanagement and misappropriations, and simultaneously pressure from lending agencies such as the IMF to curb public spending, the Pakistani state lacks the capacity to help curb the growing poverty and desperation.

The persistent failure of development interventions in Pakistan has allowed food insecurity to become a threat for nearly half the country's poor urban and rural population. This situation will become worse, as the majority of poor farmers and sharecroppers return to find their crops destroyed by the flooding, and with hardly any means available to pay off their accumulated debts to powerful landlords.