Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 25, 2024

Europe

Politics

June 9 European Parliament elections will likely see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains in several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties.

2024 Elections: The European Union

Ecuador

Iran

Israel

China

A banner depicts IRGC missile models aimed at Israel on April 16 in the Iranian capital of Tehran. The ongoing confrontation may be entering a de-escalation phase after the April 19 Israeli counterstrike to Iran's April 13 salvo against Israel.

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict, Ecuador's Constitutional Referendum

Media

Podcasts

Economics

Social Issues

What are the biggest issues with the U.S. healthcare system, and how can we address them?

RANE Insights: Addressing Problems in the U.S. Healthcare System

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

Russia

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 18, 2024

Iraq

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Syria

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

U.S.-Iran Relations

Singapore

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

India

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Latest

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024. 

Without productivity-enhancing economic reform, China's economic growth will likely continue to slow amid insufficient demand and continued over-investment.

Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestenian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Pakistan

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

U.S.-China Relations

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Connecticut passed a bill covering a wide range of topics, including artificial intelligence bias, the prohibition of certain AI-generated images and videos, and deceptive content concerning elections, AP reported on April 24.

U.S.: Connecticut Passes Wide-Ranging AI Bill

Mozambique

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa extended the deployment of 1,495 members of the South African National Defense Force stationed in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province under the Southern African Development Community, or SADC, from April 16 to Dec. 31, Reuters reported on April 24. 

South Africa: Ramaphosa Extends Troop Mandates in Mozambique and Congo

Burkina Faso

Human Rights Watch found that Burkinabe security forces had executed over 220 civilians in three villages located in the country's northern Yatenga province over their alleged collaboration with jihadist militants on Feb. 25, Reuters reported on April 25.

Burkina Faso: Human Rights Watch Finds Military Executed Over 220 Civilians 

Kenya

The price of Kenya's locally-assembled smartphones have increased by up to 17% since their launch in October 2023, Business Daily Africa reported on April 25, citing a study from the Kenya Private Sector Alliance.

Kenya: Locally-Assembled Smartphones Struggle To Become Cost-Competitive  

Yemen

U.S.-led coalition forces in the Red Sea engaged an anti-ship ballistic missile launched by Yemen's Houthi rebels over the Gulf of Aden toward a U.S. flagged, owned and operated ship on April 24, AP reported on April 25.

Yemen: More Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea Indicate Persistent Threat to Shipping Routes

Hamas official and Palestinian Legislative Council member Khalil al-Hayya said Hamas would consider transforming into a disarmed political party in exchange for a Palestinian state, while also offering a five-year truce with Israel as a presage to such a process, AP reported on April 25. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Official Suggests Transforming Into a Political Party in Exchange for a Palestinian State

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced on April 24 that he was canceling his public duties until April 29 and was considering resigning after a court in Madrid announced the beginning of an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption, El Mundo reported the next day.

Spain: Prime Minister Threatens Resignation Over Corruption Accusations

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on April 25 finalized a set of four ambitious final rules aiming to significantly slash emissions in the power sector, as well as reduce wastewater pollutants and other environmental concerns in the power sector. 

U.S.: EPA Finalizes Rule To Cut Most Emissions From Coal, Gas Power Plants

The U.N. Environment Program announced that the Net-Zero Insurance Alliance, or NZIA, would be disbanded and replaced by the new Forum for Insurance Transition to Net Zero, or FIT, Reuters reported on April 25.

Global: U.N. Launches New Insurance Climate Alliance With Weaker Membership Requirements

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Mali

Niger

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Poland

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Russian officials arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov in full military uniform on corruption charges right after the Defense Ministry's Collegium meeting headed by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Ivanov's close associate, Reuters reported on April 24.

Russia: Deputy Defense Minister Arrested in Highest-Ranking Corruption Case Since War

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Connecticut Passes Wide-Ranging AI Bill

South Africa: Ramaphosa Extends Troop Mandates in Mozambique and Congo

Burkina Faso: Human Rights Watch Finds Military Executed Over 220 Civilians

Kenya: Locally-Assembled Smartphones Struggle To Become Cost-Competitive

Yemen: More Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea Indicate Persistent Threat to Shipping Routes

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Official Suggests Transforming Into a Political Party in Exchange for a Palestinian State

Spain: Prime Minister Threatens Resignation Over Corruption Accusations

U.S.: EPA Finalizes Rule To Cut Most Emissions From Coal, Gas Power Plants

Global: U.N. Launches New Insurance Climate Alliance With Weaker Membership Requirements

Russia: Deputy Defense Minister Arrested in Highest-Ranking Corruption Case Since War

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