Tipping the scales

WESTERNERS watching keenly for how India will align itself in international affairs found reason to cheer at the start of the year. On the eve of India's return, after 19 years, to the United Nations Security Council on January 1st, its central bank quietly announced that payments for Iranian oil imports could no longer be made through an Asian currency-clearing union. The move, which followed lobbying from America and Europe, lifts a veil on India's payments for Iranian oil.

Though it is largely symbolic, its significance has not been lost on Iran. Increasingly isolated, that country is a big supplier of oil to India, accounting for 13% of imports. The government in Tehran is scrambling for other channels for the funds—the 400,000 barrels India imports daily are worth $12 billion a year. But India appears to be falling in with American, European and Japanese efforts to discourage financial dealings with Iran.

The trade in oil will not stop—January's supplies are guaranteed—but it may decline. More and more, though, Indian oil firms are being urged to look farther afield for oil, notably to Saudi Arabia and west Africa (India is lobbying hard for new supplies from Angola). The central bank's decision may also encourage Western diplomats to hope that India, which seeks a permanent seat on the Security Council, could be persuaded to support a future round of UN sanctions against Iran.

India and Iran still share common interests. They have long opposed the Taliban in Afghanistan and (to some degree in Iran's case) opposed the Taliban's backers in Pakistan. Indian investors hope that Iran will one day host a pipeline for gas imports from Central Asia. And Indian diplomats steeped in their country's history as a leader of the non-aligned movement recoil at the idea of falling in behind American leadership.

But India is forming increasingly friendly ties with America. And it strongly dislikes the idea of another nuclear-tipped power appearing in its troubled neighbourhood. Three times in 2005-09 Indian diplomats backed resolutions at the International Atomic Energy Agency criticising Iran over secret programmes to enrich uranium which many outsiders say is intended for weapons use. None of this guarantees a tougher Indian position on Iran: even the central bank apparently did not inform the foreign ministry of its December decision. Yet the obscurest little changes can sometimes prove to be the most telling.