The striking characteristic of the democratic revolutions sweepingthe Arab world is how they all began domestically with grassrootsorganization, but are now entering a darker, more violent phase whereinternational actors become critical.
The stakes are especially high in Syria, which sits at the center ofthe Arab world and has been a source of much of the region's unrest fordecades. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has launched a brutal crackdown,arresting protesters, invading cities and ''disappearing'' journalists.
The United States, European Union and others have condemned Assad --to little effect. The missing international voice has been Syria's northernneighbor, economic benefactor and the Middle East's newest regional power:Turkey. The government of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan hasspent the last decade building up a friendly relationship with Damascus bycultivating economic and political ties. Erdogan should to use some of thatgoodwill to convince Assad to halt the attacks. Indeed, Turkey is uniquelysuited to make a difference.
Since 2002, Turkey has invested more in its rapprochement with Syriathan with any of its other neighbors, transforming its relationship fromone of military confrontation rooted in Cold War-era geopolitical animosityto close economic partners today. The transformation has been a shiningexample of Turkey's ''zero-problems'' policy toward its neighbors. Aleppo,an entrepreneurial trading hub on the ancient silk road in Syria's northand the country's second largest city, has been reconnected to Turkey'ssoutheastern province of Gaziantep through new border, rail, and roadconnections. This has led to an economic boom with Turkish tourists andinvestment pouring in. Until recently Aleppo seemed the model for the restof Syria.
Those economic ties can provide crucial leverage. Syria's economy isin tatters and in need of reforms, regardless of the outcome of theprotests. Unless Syria wants to follow the path of North Korea as aninternational pariah, which is nearly impossible because of its porousborders and central geographic location as a regional crossroads, Damascushas little choice but to look to Ankara for economic help. Stability -- orin reality, status-quo maintenance -- has been the mantra of Ankara'sdealing with the Syrian crisis. But Ankara must incentivize the regime inDamascus to make way for the meaningful reforms including economicliberalization, representative elections and transparent application ofrules of law that the protesters are demanding.
By speaking frankly and firmly to Damascus about first calling offthe regime's security forces and developing a roadmap toward democracy inSyria with clear economic incentives, Ankara stands the best chance ofbeing heard. As the crisis deepens, Erdogan may be the only world leaderwho can save Assad from his regime's excesses. A speech like the oneErdogan delivered recently against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, coupledwith sanctions that singled out Assad's regime, would deal a blow toDamascus domestically and internationally that it could ill afford toignore.
The uprisings of the Arab Spring have proven a deep challenge toTurkey, which has spent the last decade strengthening regional ties andpromoting itself as a beacon of Middle Eastern democracy. Now, Turkey seesthat regional credibility being put on the line with every suppressedprotest. At the start of the Arab revolutions, Erdogan tentatively placedTurkey on the side of the pro-democracy movements starting with Tunisia andthen Egypt. Turkey was the first country to call for Egyptian PresidentHosni Mubarak to step down at a time when other leaders, includingPresident Obama, were hedging their bets. However, Turkey's role as an''inspiration'' was put in jeopardy a few weeks later as a result of itsinitial reluctance to criticize Khadafy.
Turkey's eventual flip-flop on Libya -- earlier this month Erdogancalled for Gaddafi to step down -- was an acknowledgement that sometimes,hard power has to be used when autocrats refuse to be swayed by the kind ofsoft power that democrats would have heeded. Echoing his earlier wordsabout Tunisia and Egypt, Erdogan warned, ''We don't want to live throughnew Halabjas, new Hamas and Humus, new Bosnias.'' Erdogan's belatedscolding of Gaddafi will hopefully be understood as a warning to Assad,too. ''Leaders must take responsibility, make sacrifice, choose the humaneand conscientious path with a view to changing the face, fate and image ofthese lands,'' Erdogan told Gaddafi. Turkey should deliver the same messageto Syria.
Originally published at Boston.com
Joshua W. Walker is a postdoctoral fellow at the Crown Center forMiddle Eastern Studies at Brandeis University and a research fellow at theBelfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School.