The Russian blockade began at midnight on Jan. 29. At factories and warehouses across neighboring Ukraine, truckers had picked up their regular haul of cargo that afternoon and made their way to the eastern border. If their radios were tuned to the news as they drove along the icy highways, they would have heard some alarming bulletins.

Five years ago, Central and Eastern Europe was home to one of the world’s most impressive growth stories. Annual GDP growth was close to 5%, just behind China and India. Foreign direct investment poured into Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia at a rate of more than $40 billion per year. One in six cars sold in greater Europe was being exported from factories in the region. Productivity and per capita GDP were rising briskly, narrowing the gap with Western Europe.